# Unit 2, Section 2: How Likely Is It?

Instructional Days: 7

## Enduring Understandings

Probability measures the long run frequency of occurrence for chance outcomes. Probabilities can be approximated by designing and conducting simulations, and also via mathematical calculation.

## Engagement

Students will watch a scene from the movie Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead and discuss the likelihood of getting “heads” when tossing a coin 78 times in a row. The scene can be found at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbInZ5oJ0bc

## Learning Objectives

Statistical/Mathematical:

S-CP 2: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

S-CP 9: (+) Use permutations to perform [informal] inference. *This standard will be addressed in the context of data science.

S-IC 6: Evaluate reports based on data.

Data Science:

Understand how algorithms are used to design simulations.

Applied Computational Thinking using RStudio:

• Design and conduct simulations in RStudio.

• Compare actual data to simulated data using RStudio.

• Re-randomization of permuted data.

• Use estimated probabilities from samples to determine theoretical probabilities

Real-World Connections:

Learn to use simulations to determine expectations of events.

## Language Objectives

1. Students will use complex sentences to construct summary statements about their understanding of data, how it is collected, how it is used and how to work with it.

2. Students will engage in partner and whole group discussions and presentations to express their understanding of data science concepts.

## Data File or Data Collection Method

Simulated data in RStudio.

## Legend for Activity Icons 